Hey Folks,
Its
been long time since i m writing up well that calls for new year resolution for
updating blog atleast once in a month. Well today’s write up comes up after
practically going through the best learning year I had since a long time. If
one checks the Nifty 50 Index return the Index closed at 10530 last December
that is 2017 & we closed just at 10876 on Dec 31that means index returns is
just 3 % around.
Now let’s
flash back to some interesting things that happened during 2018 for many of you
crying about returns. Stocks like Indigo, Jet Airways , BPCL , HPCL , IOC ,
Equitas & Ujjivan gave 100 % or more returns don’t scratch your head , you
might look at the charts & say its a foul hmmm no no its not correct but my
friends this has actually happened. Even the worst nightmare stocks of
Investors DHFL & PCJ gave 150 % returns. Some with F&O & cash market strategy these stocks actually paid off very good returns. We are in the midst of one of
the best volatile time this should last atleast upto December 2019. SIP is
Darling of Investors I & many of my clients, friends are doing it but there
is no Holy Grail you should know when to start & stop this SIP button. If
it was to be so easy why Buffet or Bill Gates did not do SIP ? No no i m not
ANTI SIP but one should understand financial goals , needs etc. then & then
you will realize whether it is good or bad to do a SIP. Keep things simple don’t
opt for Complex. Here i would like to share story of Harry Markowitz Noble
Price Winner in Economics was asked Mr Markowitz “You have won the award for
best economics model. What is your strategy for Equity market ? He said I follow
simple rules. This guy won noble price for Economics for creating complex models
he follows simple rules. More one can read in google. Psychologically its very hard to follow SIMPLE models but if one puts just one effort every day its achievable easily. There many such models for SIP & Bulk Investments which can easily generate 30 % CAGR but again its hard to follow because they are SIMPLE. Its in human nature to opt for only Complex so we as humans end up with failures.
The
interim Budget was presented which should rosy pictures, with many questions
marks about governments incomes. Budget was the best it was targeted for Middle
Class & farmers reason is simple these are sections of the society that
moves economies of any country so it had
to be that way. Moreover I believe governments will come & go, many scams
will come & go but next decade belongs to India whether it is Modi or Rahul
it doesn’t bother me. The bigger picture will be Healthcare & Rural look for opportunities
here. Few sectors that come to mind are Infra, Technology, Real Estate,
Healthcare, Animal Husbandry . I would write more on these in next few weeks.
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